Middle East SitRep: 19th March 2026 (AM)
Executive Summary
The current phase of conflict is expected to continue in a similar manner for the immediate future. Iran will seek to leverage access through the Strait of Hormuz to obtain diplomatic concessions. The US and Israel will seek to degrade Iranian missile facilities and state institutions, but may escalate by seizing islands in the Persian Gulf. Operations to secure highly enriched uranium can also not be ruled out.
- Iran has carried out ballistic missile attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf in response to Israeli attacks on the South Pars Gas field
- President Trump threatens more attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure
- Multiple vessels have been attacked in the Gulf
- At least four fatalities have been reported in Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel
- There are reports of a ceasefire agreement between the US and PMF groups in Iraq
Iran and Gulf
Iran has carried out missile attacks on energy facilities in Gulf states in retaliation for Israeli strikes on its South Pars gas field. Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex was struck by multiple missiles, and there are reports of extensive damage. Ras Laffan is the world’s largest liquefied natural gas facility and houses Shell’s $18bn Pearl GTL plant, which converts gas into chemical feedstocks and fuel. Qatar expelled the Iranian security attaché and military attaché from the country. President Trump has claimed that Israel will not launch further attacks on Iranian energy facilities but threatened to blow up the “entirety of the South Pars Gas Field” should Qatar be attacked again. In Saudi Arabia, damage was reported at the Aramco refinery to the south of Riyadh, which also appears to be the result of a ballistic missile launch. Missiles were fired at the city’s diplomatic quarters just before ministers from Arab and Islamic countries were due to hold a face-to-face meeting regarding the war. An unspecified attack was also carried out in the Samref facility on the Red Sea coast with minimal impact reported. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister has warned Iran that its patience is “not unlimited”. In the UAE, the Habshan gas facility suspended operations due to falling debris from missile interceptions. The nearby Bab oil field is also reported to have been targeted. The Mina al Ahmadi refinery in Kuwait was targeted by drones, with reports of a fire breaking out. At least two vessels have been struck by projectiles in the Gulf. One of the vessels was struck near Ras Laffan, Qatar and the other by Khor Fakkan, UAE. The latter attack resulted in a fire breaking out on the vessel. Satellite imagery has also shown what appears to be a fire breaking out on the abandoned Safeen Prestige, with imagery showing Iranian speedboats in the vicinity, indicating it may have been targeted again.
Israel and Lebanon
Iran has carried out multiple ballistic missile attacks on Israel. In central Israel, a man was killed in Moshav Adanim, while three women were killed in the West Bank town of Beit Awwa. 13 others were wounded. Another Iranian missile salvo impacted the suburbs of Haifa. Hezbollah also fired rocket salvos at northern Israel and the group managed to launch a missile at the south of the country, targeting Ashkelon in the south of the country. In Lebanon, Israeli strikes were carried out on the south and the Bekaa area, with no strikes reported on Beirut. Israel has claimed to have killed 20 Hezbollah operatives in ground operations in southern Lebanon.
Iraq
There are reports of a ceasefire agreed between the US, the Iraqi government and Iranian-aligned groups. Kataib Hezbollah announced a conditional 5-day pause in attacks on the US Embassy in Baghdad. Conditions are that Israel stop its strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, cease attacks on Iraqi civilian areas, and confine CIA personnel inside the embassy and Kurdish areas. It is reported that agreement was reached after Iraqi security forces arrested several PMF members, in order to release them Kataib Hezbollah agreed to this ceasefire.