Middle East SitRep: 19th March 2026 (PM)

Executive Summary

The current phase of conflict is expected to continue in a similar manner for the immediate future. Iran will seek to leverage access through the Strait of Hormuz to obtain diplomatic concessions. The US and Israel will seek to degrade Iranian missile facilities and state institutions, but may escalate by seizing islands in the Persian Gulf. Operations to secure highly enriched uranium can also not be ruled out.

• Oil loading has reportedly been halted at the port of Yanbu after the earlier drone attack
• Other attacks reported on Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE
• Impacts have been reported at the Haifa refinery in northern Israel
• A US F-35A/B Lightning II was reportedly damaged by Iranian air defences
• US airstrikes were conducted against PMF positions in Baghdad and northern Iraq 

Gulf

Following the reported drone attack at the Samref refinery on the Red Sea coast, it has been reported that oil loading has been stopped at Yanbu. While capacity at the port is far smaller than that of Gulf ports, it is the only feasible route for Gulf oil and gas. Saudi Arabia’s East West Pipeline has an (untested) capacity of 6.5 million bpd, with the port able to offload 1.5 million bpd. In Kuwait, soon after the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery was struck, the nearby Mina Abdullah refinery was also targeted. Bahrain has reported intercepting 4 drones, and the UAE has intercepted 7 ballistic missiles and 15 drones. Attacks were likely carried out on other states, but these have yet to be reported. 

Israel and Lebanon 

An Iranian ballistic missile appears to have damaged the refinery in Haifa, northern Israel, with the extent of damage unknown. Power cuts were reported in the Krayot suburbs of the city. Israel has two operational refineries. Also in the north, four people were wounded in a Hezbollah rocket attack on Kiryat Shmona. Israeli airstrikes have been reported in the south of Lebanon, but there have been no reported attacks on Beirut. Lebanon’s Foreign Affairs and Information Ministries were briefly hacked by “the Fatimids”, a group made up of Afghan fighters who were backed by Iran in the Syrian Civil War. 

Iran

An F-35A/B Lightning II was reportedly damaged by Iranian air defences during a combat mission in Iran. The plane made an emergency landing at an unspecified base in the region. US-Israeli attacks have continued in Tehran as well as the west and central parts of the country. 

Iraq

The US has conducted airstrikes on a PMF base near Mosul in northern Iraq and on a Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba base in Baghdad. There have been no reported attacks on US, Western or Kurdish groups as yet.